My Election update

Dear James, Daniel and Emily

So a lot happened in the last 4 days. There was the Obama speech to close the Democratic convention. And then the Republican VP pick. And last the Gustav effect on the Republican convention and the election in gneral.

First, the speech, I watched it, recorded it, and loved it. It was emotional (it got pretty dusty in there a few times), it was smart, and entertaining. I thought it did what he wanted: it broke down his main plans, it broke out what the main differences are between Obama and McCain, and it was a all for a more civbilized approach to the camapaign. Forrest remarked that he though that Obama was no longer living up to his goal of rising above the 'politics as usual' campaign strategy of negativity. I think that he is doing his best to do so, but he won't fall into the trap that Kerry did of letting any attack go unanswered. This is not the West Wing idealized world where the candidates get together and jointly decide to not go negative. I think there is too much at risk to not answer the attacks.

Second, the VP pick, I thought it was typical McCain: reckless, possibly brilliant, but with a huge huge potential down side. In talking to my niece on Saturday (a Hillary supporter) she was insulted by the implication that just by nominating a woman she would automatically forsake her values and vote for McCain. And I think there will be a number of Hillary supporters who will eventually realize that. And the more that comes out the more I think that she is an example of the worst aspects of the Neo-Con Republicans: Shiny eyed fanaticism highlighted by her right to life, pro-creation, anti-sex ed views. And so long as Biden doesn't come across as too much of a bully in their debate, it will eventually prove to be a negative. Mainly because it took McCain's most successful tack so far: Experience, and threw it right out the window.

Last, the Gustav effect, which I don't think can be underestimated. Because the Republicans now cannot afford the flash and glitz of the Democratic convention, not when 2 million people have been displaced and some portion of them may have lost houses etc. And this gives people a chance to revisit everything that went wrong with Katrina and the aftermath. And the Republicans can't go too far in showing off their compassion without seeming to make political hay out of a tragedy. It remains to be seen what effect it has, but I think the hurricane season this year could play out pretty dramatically. And as an aside, all of those arguments for increased offshore drilling have to look a little foolish with the expectations of having to shut down production for a month of so every year due to adverse weather...